Situation

[Maester Maurin]

I quess it is time to show our support for Benfry and strike at Riverlanders- it seems Horas is screwed.

[barker520]

Okay, my men of 6,300 have just arrived in the Riverlands. If the army of 15,000 that was sent to KL, if you changed their course of action to strike the riverlands right now, I think we could even take such a large castle as Harrenhal or Riverrun.
The ironborn are leading an attack on Seagard right now.
Of course, we might as well wait until Tuesday, as none of the battles can be rolled until then, cause that is when Smith returns.

If we take one of the keeps on the western border, like Pinkmaiden, Riverrun, etc., mayhaps we can convince the new regent to redraw the border just a tad to let us keep it. That will also diminish the riverland's strength, whose loyalty must be shaky after their leader has been defeated in a civil war.

[barker520]

Well, in any case, I think we need to strike somewhere, because if we don't, it could be claimed afterwards that the West was never really against Horas.

[Maester Maurin]

I had 15 000 men go towards King`s Landing. Should they try to backstab the Riverlands army or strike at Riverlands instead?

[barker520]

Hmm.... If we were to come in and help win the victory outside KL, that would be great for the West. I think we should go to KL and take part in the battle, just to say we were there. And if we backstabbed them, thats even better, as our forces will have a devestating effect. But that is just my opinion.

Marten, I have 6,300 men marching south, and they have just now entered the north of the riverlands. I will have to decide what to do with them by the time Smith gets back. I can either send them straight to KL, I can have them try to a take a riverland keep, or I send them back to the West to reinforce somewhere just in case. It's your call. Just let me know.

[Sam]

Don't bother going to King's Landing, that battle will be over by the time you get there and then you'll look like you were just jumping on the bandwagon at the last possible moment. Our best bet would be to strike at Riverrun. That's a large enough castle to be worth taking, and it is owned by Horas Blackwood who will certainly not survive this war, which means all of his property will be given to people who were loyal. Lewys I would advise you to strike at either the Twins or Seagard with your men, while Marten attacks Riverrun. If we're lucky, we'll get to keep Riverrun after the war is over.

Pinkmaiden is a chancier target, because Burque Piper has not been as outrightly treacherous as Horas has, he was just following the orders of his liege, and he hasn't even taken part in any fighting. Riverrun and Harrenhall, however, will likely be up for grabs once Horas is deposed, but Harrenhall is much father away from the west and is not a very strategic target for us. I say take Riverrun, and hope that Benfry lets us keep it.

Say that our army turned north off the Goldroad (road from Lannisport to KL) at the Red Fork and write a post about them in the Riverlands, being snowed into a camp but seeing Riverrun off in the distance, so that when the Smith gets back we can move in to attack the castle right away.

Btw, my third Tarannon is with Marten's army.

[barker520]

Most of that makes sense to me. Riverrun would be a priceless reward should we be allowed to keep it.

However, I believe Marten sent the order for the 15,000 men to march to KL either yesterday or the day before. They may be at KL or drawing very near by today, so when Smith comes back they should be able to be there.

But, if Marten decides Riverrun is a better path to take, then that army could in fact just say they were travelling slow and turn north to take Riverrun.

The ironborn are attacking Seagard with 100 ships and then attempting to land and take the castle after the sea battle as soon as the Smith gets back. My men could be there easily in time to act in accord with the Ironborn in the attack.

The Twins are riskier, as they usually keep a large garrison. I wrote a secret scenario saying Lewys's army caught a scout from the Twins and Raventree Hall, asking how many men were in the garrison. I asked Smith to let me have the information, but he must have denied it, as he read the PM but didn't reply.

[Sam]

If Jaymes had been there, he could have gotten the information out of that scout, haha.

Marten, I think you could take the license to change your destination. Your army left Lannisport with the intention of marching to KL and changed course on the way. As long as you make a post about changing course as early as possible, you can get to Riverrun and take it before they finished the battle of KL probably. Horas called the Riverlands army of 30,000 to Raventree Hall, and then started them marching towards KL, so I bet Riverrun is relatively lightly defended.

[barker520]

That sounds like a smart strategy, Jaymes. Shouldn't we send at least like... 1,000 or 2,000 troops to KL, though? Just as a token of our support and so we can at least say yes, we had someone there.

Also, I contacted Harlaw about a joint attack on Seagard, and he said that Seagard is lightly defended and should be easy to take. He advised me to strike at the Twins.

I think I will do that. Either that, or come up on the other side and help take Riverrun.

If I travel to the Twins, I think they should open the gates for me, which will seriously help my chances. I mean, hell, the Riverlands do they think the West are their only allies left.

[Sam]

The garrison in the Twins shouldn't be that large, since Blackwood called his banners and sent the army marching to KL. You should be able to take at least one of the castles by storm, and from that castle you can take the other as well.

[barker520]

I will attempt it, but it will be tough. The Twins are no easy castles to take by storm with 6,000 men.

[Sam]

That's entirely defendant on the number and quality of the men defending it.

[barker520]

Wow, I guess you would have me rephrase it:

The Twins are a tough place to take by storm when manned by regular numbers and regular quality of men.

[Sam]

You're missing the point, the garrison cannot be that big. If it's more than 1000 I'd be very very surprised, since the Twins' troops are included in the total 30,000 of the Riverlands army.

[barker520]

I thought you we're saying something else.

Any other castle I would agree, but Lord Frey had told me before that he has several thousand troops at the Twins, and as 30,000 is not close to the max of that region ( I think it is 40 or 45,000), then there could still be as many as 2500 or so at the Twins.

I wouldn't put it past Lord Frey to keep those men back when Horas needs them.